What is driving capSpire’s approach to the transition?

At capSpire, our approach is shaped by what we are seeing across our clients, particularly in markets like Australia where the transition is entering a more complex phase.

In the National Energy Market (NEM), high renewable penetration, strong rooftop solar adoption, and increasing reliance on storage and gas for firming are fundamentally changing how the system operates. For many organizations, the challenge is no longer adding capacity, but managing a system that is more volatile, constrained, and dynamic in real time.

We work with clients to help them operate effectively in that environment, setting up a solid foundation to capture complex contracts and positions, improving visibility, strengthening integration, and enabling faster, more confident decision-making across trading, risk, operations and settlements.

How do you see the reality of 2030 targets aligning with current delivery pathways?

The direction is clear, but the delivery pathway is becoming more operationally demanding for many organizations.

“our clients are dealing with the realities of development delays” 

While renewable build-out is progressing, our clients are increasingly dealing with the realities of development delays, transmission constraints, congestion, and the timing of coal plant retirements. These factors are tightening conditions across the NEM and making coordination more complex.

Meeting 2030 targets will depend not just on adding capacity, but on how effectively generation, storage, and firming are aligned in practice. This is driving a need for stronger operational capability and more responsive decision-making across the business.

How might the transition create different outcomes for regions, technologies, and customer classes?

“location and infrastructure are key differentiators” 

We are seeing very different outcomes emerge across regions and market participants.

For our clients, location and infrastructure are becoming key differentiators. Regions with stronger transmission and interconnection are better positioned, while others are experiencing congestion, curtailment, and price divergence.

From a technology perspective, wind and solar are driving supply, but storage and gas remain essential for firming and system balance. This is adding complexity to how portfolios are managed and optimized.

For customers, particularly large energy users, this translates into greater exposure to price volatility. Those with better visibility and stronger risk management capabilities are in a much stronger position to respond.

What are some common misconceptions about the transition, and how do they compare with reality?

One of the most common misconceptions we encounter is that the transition is primarily about building more renewable capacity, automatically lowers prices.

In practice, our clients are dealing with a far more operationally driven challenge. The system is growing more complex rather than simpler, and effectively managing that complexity is now critical to performance – alongside maintaining regulatory and operational compliance.

“effectively managing timing and flexibility is critical”  

Another misconception is that volatility will settle over time. In reality, what’s emerging in the NEM is structural volatility, driven by intermittent generation, shifting demand patterns, and the need for real-time system balancing. As a result, effectively managing timing and flexibility is becoming critical.

For our clients, success in this phase depends on how effectively they can manage that complexity and respond to market signals, rather than simply on the assets they have in place.

What about the transition keeps you up at night?

What we are seeing across our clients is a growing gap between how complex the system has become and how equipped organizations are to operate within it.

Trading, risk, and operations teams are dealing with more volatility, tighter system conditions, and faster decision cycles. At the same time, many are still working with fragmented systems, manual processes, and limited visibility across positions and risk.

That combination makes it harder to respond quickly and confidently when market conditions shift.

At capSpire, this is where we focus. We work with clients to improve how their systems, processes, and teams operate together, strengthening integration, increasing visibility, and enabling faster, more informed decision-making.

The organizations addressing these challenges now are the ones putting themselves in the strongest position to manage volatility and perform in this next phase of the transition.

As a Principal Consultant in capSpire’s Sydney office, Kristine Salud works with electricity generators and wholesale market participants to deliver performance reporting, forecasting solutions and market modelling capabilities, as well as supporting the implementation of complex regulatory changes.